Customer purchase forecasting for online tourism: A data-driven method with multiplex behavior data

Online tourism has received increasing attention from scholars and practitioners due to its growing contribution to the economy. While related issues have been studied, research on forecasting customer purchases and the influence of forecasting variables, online tourism is still in its infancy. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a data-driven method to achieve two objectives: (1) provide an accurate purchase forecasting model for online tourism and (2) analyze the influence of behavior variables as predictors of online tourism purchases. Based on the real-world multiplex behavior data, the proposed method can predict online tourism purchases accurately by machine learning algorithms. As for the practical implications, the influence of behavior variables is ranked according to the predictive marginal value, and how these important variables affect the final purchase is discussed with the help of partial dependence plots. This research contributes to the purchase forecasting literature and has significant practical implications.     

基于主客视角的苏南传统村落旅游地乡愁的时间特征

“记得住乡愁”是乡村旅游和乡村振兴的重要内容。本文基于居民和游客视角,以苏南传统村落为案例地,探讨乡愁的时间特征。结果表明：（1）乡愁主体方面：相对暂居村落的外来人口,三代以上的世代居民对家乡乡愁情感更加强烈;出生在1950—1959和1960—1978年间的这两代游客较多成长在乡村,乡愁文化感知相对更高;离开家乡在外工作生活时间越长的游客在传统村落旅游时,其乡愁情感和乡愁记忆比起未离开家乡或离开家乡较短的人更加强烈。（2）乡愁触点方面：触发居民和游客乡愁的季节集中在秋天和冬天,天气集中在下雨和落雪时,时辰集中在深夜和傍晚时,节庆集中在春节、中秋节、清明节和家乡特有节日,假日主要集中在周末、寒假和“十一”国庆假期。（3）乡愁记忆方面：主客乡愁记忆都主要集中在童年,其次是青少年,最后是成年和老年;游客产生乡愁的频率比居民频率相对高。（4）乡愁载体回忆顺序：主客乡愁载体都会提到“家”和“乡”相关场所和空间,其回忆的顺序是家人、家、家乡和国家。文章最后总结了乡愁旅游开发的启示。     

Diagnosing a healthcare cybersecurity crisis: The impact of IoMT advancements and 5G

Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) technology remains in early stages of adoption, but advancements and breakthroughs are quickly moving this process forward. There is a critical need for cybersecurity to be a priority in the development of these new tools, alongside design and utility. Given the rapid pace and potential magnitude of the coming advancements in IoMT, if privacy and security risks are neglected, a significant crisis could emerge in the form of more frequent cybersecurity breaches. This article examines the market opportunities and risks associated with IoMT and outlines a plan for proactively mitigating concerns and providing a platform to foster growth, to modify attitudes and behaviors, and to continue to build consumer confidence in the overall health system without sacrificing security.     

疫情期间国际工程投标报价风险分析及费用计算方法研究

随着我国经济的快速发展和“走出去”、“一带一路”倡议的实施,越来越多的企业在政府的带动下开始进军国际市场,但是国际工程往往施工周期长、金额较大、技术复杂、政府干预较多、不确定性因素多,风险与机遇并存,针对2020年全球新冠病毒蔓延这一特殊的时期,企业更应在投标阶段做好风险分析、测算、管控工作,合理规避风险,总结经验教训,保证企业履约能力和竞争性。     

资本市场开放与股权资本成本——基于沪港通、深港通的实证研究

本文基于沪港通和深港通研究资本市场开放对中国内地股权资本成本的影响。研究发现,受政策风险和市场环境等因素所限,沪港通在初始阶段并未对沪市公司的股权资本成本产生显著影响,但随着政策进一步完善、市场逐渐稳定和交易不断活跃,其对股权资本成本的降低效果于实施两年后开始显现;深港通建立在沪港通的制度基础和运行经验上,其在开通后显著降低了标的公司的股权资本成本。本文还进一步分析了资本市场开放影响股权资本成本的竞争渠道和信息渠道,发现深港通对股权资本成本的降低作用主要集中在投资者竞争程度较高,或是公开信息质量较高、信息不对称程度较低的股票样本。     

基于乡村振兴战略的湖南省乡村治理体系研究

［目的］乡村治理有效作为实施乡村振兴战略的五大战略总要求之一和重要组成部分，对其进行分析有利于完善农村现代化建设以及促进乡村振兴战略的实施。［方法］文章以湖南省为例，采用问卷调查法和Logistic回归模型法对乡村治理体系进行分析，探讨影响区域乡村治理体系的主要因素。［结果］被调查农户的年龄主要集中在30~60岁，年收入主要集中在1万元以上。进而结合Logistic回归模型可知：社区生活组织、村规民约、农村养老服务设施、留守儿童之家、集中性治丧场所以及村务公开等6个变量对乡村治理体系的开展实施正向显著影响，而年龄对乡村治理体系的开展负向影响。［结论］基于乡村振兴战略发展乡村治理体系主要在于创新乡村治理体系，通过分析影响湖南省乡村治理体系的因素，为乡村有效治理提供参考意见，同时充分发挥乡村治理功能实现乡村振兴战略的全面实施。     

山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素，评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度，为科学编制区域空间规划，保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵，归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素，提出了驱动力指数计算方法，定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2，占生态用地总面积的472%； 转入316万hm2，占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2，占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多，向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之，向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中，耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高，非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

社会心理服务驱动下信访“分类治理”的理路——以河南省西平县为例

学界对于信访分类治理的研究大多基于因“人”分类或因“事”分类展开,形成了信访分类治理研究的基本范式。然而,社会心理服务嵌入信访治理体系,为信访分类治理提供了新的视野:因“心”分类,即按照信访人“心理诉求——利益诉求”的两分原则,将信访人分为利益型、心理型、耦合型和无意识型四种。本文以西平县信访治理实践为个案,提炼出由“心”而治的信访分类治理模型,并对该模型的治理理路进行了分析。研究发现:地方政府对信访频次、情绪和事件的三维叠加形成了信访分类治理的参照维度,而地方政府对治理技术的灵活性运用则构成了信访分类治理的动态实践。本文为信访分类治理过程中信访人的心理诉求与利益诉求间的关系提供经验事实,并为社会心理服务驱动下的信访分类治理理路提供分析框架。然而,受限于研究区域和案例数量,本文提炼出来的由“心”而治的信访分类治理模式还有待进一步验证和完善。     

Challenges and Changes in Gendered Poverty: The Feminization,De-Feminization,and Re-Feminization of Poverty in Latin America

Despite reductions in poverty generally, recent trends in Latin American countries show processes of both de-feminization and re-feminization of poverty. A rise in the numbers of women to men living in income-poor households has occurred despite feminized anti-poverty programs, most notably conditional cash transfers (CCTs), which target resources to women. This paper shows that methodological differences in what, how, and who is the focus of measurement may influence patterns of poverty “feminization.” It also suggests that feminized policy interventions might in themselves be playing a role in the re-feminization of poverty, not least because of data and definitional limitations in the way female-headed households and, relatedly, women’s poverty are understood. The somewhat paradoxical interactions between the feminization of household headship, the feminization of poverty, and the feminization of anti-poverty programs present interesting challenges for redressing gender gaps in poverty within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.     

The moderating effect of average wage and number of stores on private label market share: A hierarchical linear model analysis

Existing research on private label market share is primarily in the context of the Western market. The Chinese market context research is scarce, although private labels are developing rapidly in the past several years. This study investigates how the average wage and number of stores affect the Chinese market's private label market share. More importantly, this paper examines the moderating effect of the average wage and the number of stores on the relationship between the private label market share and product assortment as well as the relationship between the private label market share and pricing. Data collected from a Chinese supply chain dyad is analyzed to study category management using hierarchical linear models. The results reveal that the average wage and the number of stores positively affect the private label market share. Furthermore, the average wage enhances the negative effect of the number of brands, weakens the negative effect of the private label price, weakens the positive effect of national brand price. Meanwhile, the number of stores enhances the positive effect of the SKU proliferation of private label, enhances the negative effects of the number of brands, and enhances the negative effect of the private label price. This study contributes to category management. Furthermore, the findings will be valuable to domestic and international grocery marketers and retailers operating private labels in China.